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A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."